According to a new report, sales of electric vehicles will continue to grow, despite a mixed short-term outlook. The researchers explained this uncertain ambiguity.
The long-term outlook for electric vehicles indicates that rapid declines in battery prices, advances in next-generation battery technology, and improvements in the relative cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles compared to gasoline-powered counterparts will support market growth worldwide. However, the report notes that the window to achieve global zero emissions is now narrower than ever.
Here are seven key takeaways from the report:
Global sales of passenger electric vehicles continue to grow, but more slowly than before in the next few years
Sales of passenger electric vehicles are expected to exceed 30 million in 2027 and grow to 73 million per year in 2040. In the next four years, electric vehicle sales will grow by an average of 21% per year in the absence of new policy intervention, compared to an average of 61% between 2020 and 2023.
The share of electric vehicles in global sales of new passenger cars will increase to 33% in 2027 from 17.8% in 2023. Only China (60%) and Europe (41%) will exceed this world average at that time. By 2027, sales of electric cars in Brazil will grow fivefold, and in India – threefold.
Sales of cars with internal combustion engines have reached a peak
Sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines peaked in 2017 and will be 29% lower by 2027. The transition to electric cars is now the main method of decarbonizing road transport.
Hybrids may play a significant role in the near term, particularly in markets with increasingly stringent fuel economy regulations, but not in the long term. By 2030, hybrids are forecast to account for between 5% and 45% of total sales, depending on the market.
By 2030, electric heavy-duty trucks will be economically viable for most use cases
In the heavier segments, battery electric trucks are initially mostly used in urban duty cycles. But their efficiency is improving even on long-distance routes and will approach the performance of diesel power units by about 2030.
So far, electric trucks have not reached the desired heights, and the truck from Tesla generally disappointed almost everyone who was waiting for it.
The prospects for fuel cell trucks are much smaller.
Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries are conquering the electric vehicle market
Improvements in LFP technology are increasing their market share, especially in China, where battery prices have plummeted.
Over the next two years, LFP's share of the global passenger electric vehicle market will exceed 50%. Nickel and manganese will feel the most pressure as a result. Due to the transition to cheaper chemicals, the consumption of nickel and manganese will decrease by 25% and 38%, respectively, by 2025.
To meet the growing demand for electricity for electric vehicles, the charger industry will need to develop rapidly over the next decade
Depending on the scenario, by 2050 the cumulative investment in charging station infrastructure, installation and maintenance will be between 1.6 and 2.5 trillion USD.
Excess capacity is a big problem for battery manufacturers
The planned production capacity for the production of lithium-ion cells by the end of 2025 is more than five times higher than the global demand for storage batteries, which is expected this year at the level of 1.5 terawatt-hours. Annual demand for lithium batteries grows rapidly in BloombergNEF's economic transition scenario, approaching 5.9 terawatt-hours annually by 2035.
Achieving a global zero-emission fleet by 2050 requires a much faster transition
Despite the progress, the world road transport is still not close to the zero trajectory. By 2035, there will be 476 million electric cars on the road, and by 2040 their number will increase to 722 million, which will make up 45% of the car fleet. In the net zero scenario, by 2050 these numbers would have to be 679 million and 1.1 billion, respectively.
The Zero Scenario predicts that 100% of the car fleet will be electric by 2050, but analysts now say we will only be able to achieve 69% of these results by 2050.
The Road Ahead: Electric Cars and the Future of Driving
The air is thick with anticipation. Forget gas-guzzlers and their constant need for refills. The future of driving is electric, sleek, and silent. And it’s coming faster than you think. But, what exactly does lie on the horizon for electric vehicles?
A World Run on Electricity?
The answer is two-fold: it’s both exciting and uncertain. The electric car revolution is in full swing, and the reasons are pretty clear!
- Lower emissions: Electric vehicles are putting a dent in our carbon footprint, making a real difference in the fight against climate change.
- Lower running costs: No more expensive gas station trips! You’ll be saving a bundle on fuel.
- Quieter rides: Say goodbye to the roar of engines. Electric cars create a peaceful driving experience.
But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There are some challenges that need to be addressed before we can all cruise around in electric chariots.
- Limited range: Let’s face it, some electric cars just can’t go the distance yet. Range anxiety is a real thing!
- Charging infrastructure: We need more charging stations and a more robust charging network. There’s a lot of work to be done.
- Higher upfront costs: Electric vehicles are still a bit pricier than their gas-powered counterparts.
What Does the Future Hold?
The good news is that things are looking up! As technology advances, battery life is getting better and prices are coming down, making electric vehicles more attractive to car buyers. Plus, the government is providing incentives and investment to encourage the switch to electric.
So, what can we expect in the not-so-distant future?
- More innovative designs: Get ready for some seriously cool-looking rides.
- Smart car technologies: Imagine cars that can talk to each other and even drive themselves!
- A cleaner and healthier environment: We’re on the road to a future with cleaner air and less pollution.
FAQs
Q: Is it really cheaper to run an electric car?
A: Yes! Electric cars use less expensive electricity instead of gasoline, saving you money in the long run.
Q: How long does it take to charge an electric car?
A: It depends on the charging technology and the battery capacity. Some cars can charge in as little as 30 minutes, while others might take several hours.
Q: How can I learn more about electric cars?
A: Check out your local car dealership, do some online research, or even take a test drive!
Driving into the Future
The future of driving is electric, innovative, and full of possibilities! Whether we’re talking about reducing emissions, saving money, or simply enjoying a more peaceful ride, electric cars are paving the way for a brighter future. So, buckle up, get ready to embrace the change, and let’s go for a ride!